Potential for using climate forecasts in spatio-temporal prediction of dengue fever incidence in Malaysia submitted

Dengue fever is a viral infection transmitted by the bite of female Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. It is estimated that nearly 40% of the world’s population is now at risk from Dengue in over 100 endemic countries including Malaysia. Several studies in various countries in recent years have identified statistically significant links between Dengue incidence and climatic factors. There has been relatively little work on this issue in Malaysia, particularly on a national scale. This study attempts to fill that gap. The primary research question is ‘to what extent can climate variables be used to assist predictions of dengue fever incidence in Malaysia?’. The study proposes a potential framework of modelling spatio-temporal variation in dengue risk on a national scale in Malaysia using both climate and non-climate information. Early chapters set the scene by discussing Malaysia and Climate in Malaysia and reviewing previous work on dengue fever and dengue fever in Malaysia. Subsequent chapters focus on the analysis and modelling of annual dengue incidence rate (DIR) for the twelve states of Peninsular Malaysia for the period 1991 to 2009 and monthly DIR for the same states in the period 2001 to 2009. Exploratory analyses are presented which suggest possible relationships between annual and monthly DIR and climate and other factors. The variables that were considered included annual trend, in year seasonal effects, population, population density and lagged dengue incidence rate as well as climate factors such as average rainfall and temperature, number of rainy days, ENSO and lagged values of these climate variables. Findings include evidence of an increasing annual trend in DIR in all states of Malaysia and a strong in-year seasonal cycle in DIR with possible differences in this cycle in different geographical regions of Malaysia. High population density is found to be positively related to monthly DIR as is the DIR in the immediately preceding months. Relationships between monthly DIR and climate variables are generally quite weak, nevertheless some relationships may be able to be usefully incorporated into predictive models. These include average temperature and rainfall, number of rainy days and ENSO. However lagged values of these variables need to be considered for up to 6 months in the case of ENSO and from 1-3 months in the case of other variables. These exploratory findings are then more formally investigated using a framework where dengue counts are modelled using a negative binomial generalised linear model (GLM) with a population offset. This is subsequently extended to a negative binomial generalised additive model (GAM) which is able to deal more flexibly with non-linear relationships between the response and certain of the explanatory variables. The model successfully accounts for the large amount of overdispersion found in the observed dengue counts. Results indicated that there are statisti�cally significant relationships with both climate and non-climate covariates using this modelling framework. More specifically, smooth functions of year and month differentiated by geographical areas of the country are significant in the model to allow for seasonality and annual trend. Other significant covariates included were mean rainfall at lag zero month and lag 3 months, mean temperature at lag zero month and lag 1 month, number of rainy days at lag zero month and lag 3 months, sea surface temperature at lag 6 months, interaction between mean temperature at lag 1 month and sea surface temperature at lag 6 months, dengue incidence rate at lag 3 months and population density. Three final competing models were selected as potential candidates upon which an early warning system for dengue in Malaysia might be able to be developed. The model fits for the whole data set were compared using simulation experiments to allow for both parameter and negative binomial model uncertainty and a single model preferred from the three models was identified. The ‘out of sample’ predictive performance of this model was then compared and contrasted for different lead times by fitting the model to the first 7 years of the 9 years monthly data set covering 2001-2009 and then analysing predictions for the subsequent 2 years for lead time of 3, 6 12 and 24 months. Again simulation experiments were conducted to allow for both parameter and model uncertainty. Results were mixed. There does seem to be predictive potential for lead times of up to six months from the model in areas outside of the highly urbanised South Western states of Kuala Lumpur and Selangor and such a model may therefore possibly be useful as a basis for developing early warning systems for those areas. However, none of the models developed work well for Kuala Lumpur and Selangor where there are clearly more complex localised influences involved which need further study. This study is one of the first to look at potential climatic influences on dengue incidence on a nationwide scale in Malaysia. It is also one of the few studies worldwide to explore the use of generalised additive models in the spatio-temporal modelling of dengue incidence. Although, the results of the study show a mixed picture, hopefully the framework developed will be able to be used as a starting point to investigate further if climate information can valuably be incorporated in an early warning system for dengue in Malaysi

Effectiveness of Arbuscular Mycorrhiza and Slow Release Fertilizer to the Growth of Merawan Siput Jantan (Hopea Odorata Roxb.)

Merawan siput jantan (Hopea odorata Roxb.) is a forest tree species that can be used for plantation establishment in marginal lands. Arbuscular Mycorrhiza (AM) and fertilizer are believed to have the ability to increase tree growth in the nursery and in the field. This study was conducted to determine the effectiveness of mycorrhiza and fertilizer application on the growth of merawan siput jantan in both conditions. The nursery study was conducted in FRIM’s nursery, Kepong. It was conducted to determine the optimum level of AM inoculation and fertilizer application required for maximum tree growth. The merawan siput jantan seedlings were inoculated with three levels of AM (Draz-M) inoculation viz; 0, 100 and 200 g per seedling. The levels of nutrient (Vitality/ slow release fertilizer) were applied in four different amount viz; 0, 5, 10 and 20 g per seedling. Results of the study showed that inoculation using 100 g per seedling had given the highest increment of height and diameter, 6 months after the treatment. It was found that, application of AM alone did not contribute on the tree growth because the AM acts as biological booster rather than supplying nutrients. However, based on the analysis, it was found that height increment had been significantly increased by application of both AM and fertilizer compared to fertilization alone due to their synergistic interaction. A field study to evaluate application of AM and fertilizer had been conducted at plantation areas in LKPP Sg. Charu, Kuantan, Pahang. It was conducted by applying inoculated AM and fertilizer to merawan siput jantan trees in Block A: 8 months after planting and Block B: 14 months after planting. The trees were treated with two different levels of AM viz; 0 and 500 g tree-1, and three different levels of fertilizer viz; 0, 250 and 500 g tree-1. Results of the field study had further supported results of nursery study that AM had contributed on the tree growth. It was found that, application of slow release fertilizer (NPK 10:7:7) at 500 g tree-1 had significantly increased (P<0.001) the height of merawan siput jantan in both blocks. The growth of tree canopy also showed similar result.Application of slow release fertilizer indicated increased nutrients in the soil especially P and Mg at the end of the experiment. The effects of AM and fertilizer application can be observed after one year of treatments viz; i. The AM inoculated plot especially incorporated with fertilizer had increased Ca content in leaves while N is found increased in stem. ii. Contents of K and Mg in roots were also increased due to the fertilizer application. It shows that AM is able to increase nutrient absorption by the roots of the trees through symbiosis. iii. Results from nursery and field studies showed that application of AM and fertilizer have positively contributed to the tree growth. Therefore, it is recommended that the AM and fertilizer should be applied to trees both in nursery an in the field as they have been proven to improve growth

Analysis Email Filtering In Goverment Network

Nowadays, email filtering at all still in testing for suitability. The same thing also with Melaka State Development Corporation. Email plays an important role in this department. Thus, anti-spam to be an important component in improving the security of email security. It can check all incoming and outgoing emails to the server. This paper provides an overview of Email, importance, types and studies the effects of implementing email antispam email to drive performance

Physical and combustion characteristics of densified palm biomass

As reported by Malaysia Palm Oil Statistics, the production of palm biomass residues increased significantly from year to year. Thus, the utilization of these residues is very important in order to prevent waste and dump areas adjacent to the palm oil mills. Meanwhile, in order to increase the energy content per unit volume, briquetting technology is expected to fulfill this requirement by compacting biomass residues into form with higher density. In this project, the utilization of empty fruit bunch (EFB) is emphasized in briquette production. It is combined with mesocarp fibre in order to obtain the higher gross calorific value of briquette. The result shows that the briquette contains EFB fibre and mesocarp fibre (weight ratio 60:40) has the compressive strength and combustion characteristics which are competitive with local commercial briquette contains mesocarp fibre and shell (weight ratio 60:40). It is found that combustion rate belongs to briquette containing proposed mixture (EFB and mesocarp fibre) is higher than the rate belongs to another one, if both of them are produced under same compaction pressure. This gives a higher heat release from the combustion of proposed briquette. Besides, all the characteristics belong to briquette contains new mixture are found to be close to the minimum requirement for making commercial briquette which stated by DIN 51731

Comparative study of ethanol foamed asphalt binders and mixtures prepared via manual injection and laboratory foaming device

The consistency of the ethanol foamed binders and mixtures prepared using asphalt binders foamed by the manual injection technique and laboratory foaming device were evaluated and compared in this study. The asphalt binders foamed using both methods was prepared at 120 °C, 130 °C and 140 °C. The performance of ethanol-foamed binders was evaluated in terms of rotational viscosity, expansion ratio, and low temperature cracking. Meanwhile, the performance of foamed WMA mixtures was tested using semi-circular bending (SCB), disk-shaped compact tension (DCT), and tensile strength ratio (TSR) tests. In order to conduct the TSR test, the samples were conditioned using the Moisture Induced Stress Tester (MIST) to simulate the pore pressure and scouring effects due to a tire passing over wet pavement. The foamed WMA mixtures were produced using pre-heated aggregates at 80 °C and 100 °C and foamed asphalt binders produced at 130 °C. The nano-hydrated lime was used as the filler and anti-stripping agent. Overall, the properties of ethanol-foamed binders and WMA mixtures produced via both methods are significantly comparable, except the resistance to moisture damage test result. However, the findings indicate that the ethanol-foamed WMA mixtures prepared using both techniques are having good resistance to moisture damage, based on the TSR values more than 0.8. The foamed WMA mixtures also exhibited a better resistance to cracking, as indicated by a higher tensile strength compared to the control HMA. Additionally, the WMA specimen prepared at 100 °C was less susceptible to rutting than the samples produced at 80 °C

Ethanol based foamed asphalt as potential alternative for low emission asphalt technology

Foamed asphalt typically relies on water as a foaming agent because water becomes gaseous at elevated temperatures, generating numerous tiny bubbles in the asphalt and causing spontaneous foaming. In this study, ethanol was used as a potential alternative to water as a foaming agent. Ethanol is expected to be a physical blowing agent in the same manner as water, except it requires less energy to foam due to its 78 °C boiling point. This study compares the performance of water and ethanol as foaming agents through the measurements of rotational viscosity, the reduction in temperature during foaming, and volatile loss. The ethanol-foamed asphalt binders were prepared at 80 °C and 100 °C, while the water-foamed asphalt binders were prepared at 100 °C and 120 °C. Additionally, the rolling thin film oven (RTFO) was used to generate short-term aging of the foamed asphalt binders. A rotational viscometer was used to determine the viscosity of the asphalt binders at 80 °C, 100 °C, 120 °C, 140 °C, and 160 °C. Overall, ethanol can function in the same manner as water but requires less energy to foam. It is proven based on the smaller drop in temperature of the asphalt binder foamed using ethanol compared with that prepared with water. This is due to the lower latent heat capacity of ethanol, which requires less energy to vaporize compared with water. Through the rotational viscometer test, ethanol performs better in lowering the viscosity of asphalt binders, which is essential in allowing production processes at low temperatures, as well as a better workability and aggregate coating. Ethanol can be expelled from the foamed asphalt binders at a higher rate due to its lower boiling point and latent heat

Organisational commitment in Malaysian public sector

This paper describes a research project that aims to determine the level of civil servants’ organisational commitment and the factors associated with it. The instruments used to measure organisational commitment, empowerment, job characteristics, and organisational communication were adapted from Allen and Meyer (1990), Spreitzer (1995), Hackman and Oldham (1975), and Downs and Hazen (1977). The findings demonstrated that civil servants appeared to have a higher level of affective commitment with mean value of 3.88 compared to continuance 3.58 and normative commitment 2.92. The study also found that civil servants were psychologically empowered in the department with mean value of 3.71, had experienced a variable opportunity in job with mean 3.51 and were reported to be satisfied with the existing communication in the department with mean value of 3.68. Research findings also showed that there is a correlation between organisational commitment (affective, continuance, and normative commitment) with empowerment, job characteristics, and organisational communication variables. The stepwise regression exhibited that empowerment variable is the most dominant predictor of civil servants’ organisational commitment. Meanwhile, organisational communication variable appeared to be the most significant factor to influence civil servants’ affective commitment. Civil servants with continuance commitment were found to be best predicted by empowerment variable. Finally, civil servants with normative commitment tend to be mostly influenced by job characteristics variable

Experimental and analytical evaluation of bending for stainless steel

Analytical calculation is one of the methods in predicting the spring-back angle after bending process. Precise predictions of spring-back angle after the bending process are the key to the design of the bending die, bending tool, and to produce the accuracy part geometry. This thesis purpose is to determine the reliability of analytical method in V-bending analysis of stainless steel by comparing the results with experimental results and the experimental measurements of Özgür (2008). The effects of significant parameters including sheet thickness and sheet anisotropy on spring-back in V-bending analysis also have been studies. The mechanical properties that provided from tensile test experiment have been used in the analytical calculation in solving the spring-back equation. Two different equations from previous studies have been used to determine the spring-back angle. In the V-bending experiment, two different test procedures (bottoming and air V-bending process) were used. The experimental results have been used to evaluate the analytical results. The results of this project shown the spring-back values for analytical calculation are generally is not in agreement with the experimental value but the graph trends obtained in this study are generally in agreement with experimental graph patterns. The graph patterns are also in agreement with the past study by other researcher (Özgür, 2008). Increasing the sheet thickness resulted increase in the spring-back angle. The orientation angle and anisotropy value R will influence the spring-back. In general, the spring-back angle is increase if the orientation angle is increase. Therefore, the 0 degree orientation angle is a suitable condition in V-bending processes because the spring-back value is smallest compared to other orientation angles. The percentage error is very high because there are some errors occur during the tensile specimen preparation, tensile test experiment and V-bending test experiment. The accuracy and precision of machine in collecting and determined the data is a factors as the higher percentage error. It is conclude that the analytical method is not suitable in sheet metal bending analysis of stainless steel. This is because, combination of various material types and process parameters make the exact prediction of spring-back difficult

Study on myrmecodia platytyrea antoinii tuber and its potential benefits in preventing hypercholesterolemia related diseases / Mohd Kamal Nik Hasan

This study was designed in order to investigate the effect of Myrmecodia platytyrea (MyP) extract as an anti-hypercholesterolemic agent. The acute toxicological test was done by administration of single dose and followed by 14 days observation on the rat. The subchronic toxicological test was done by administration of 28 days repeated dose. Both tests showed that MyP water extract was not toxic. The bioassay-guided isolation revealed that the MyP water extract containing 2-(2-methylbutyryl) phloroglucinol glucoside which reduced 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-CoA reductase (HMGR) activity (p<0.05) with inhibition concentration 50 (IC₅₀) of 75 μg/ml. Besides that, polysaccharide showed effective concentration 50 (EC₅₀) of 50.5 μg/ml for bile acid binding. Meanwhile, rutin actively decreased pancreatic lipase activity with IC₅₀ of 130 μg/ml. Moreover, in vivo study results showed that treatment of MyP water extract can significantly reduce (p<0.05) low-density lipoprotein (LDL) compared to negative control group. The extract significantly increased (p<0.05) high-density lipoproteins (HDL) concentration compared to negative control group. In addition, MyP water extract increased faecal cholesterol and faecal bile compared to normal control group. Lipid peroxidation was significantly decreased (p<0.05) in MyP water extract treatment group. The extract also decreased the formation of the fatty streak at the aorta and significantly decreased (p<0.05) the thickness of foam cell in high cholesterol diet (HCD) induced rat